The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
The Indian services sector growth touched an 11 month high in July, supported by a pickup in new exports orders and sharp rise in overall sales, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 60.5 in July, little-changed from 60.4 in June, and the rate of expansion was the best seen since August 2024.
'Once bitten, twice shy, I didn't take up the challenge this time...' 'I realised I had failed to follow my karma because I feared failure.'
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
Retail inflation eased to a nearly six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and other protein-rich items, creating enough room for the Reserve Bank to go for another round of rate cut in the June monetary policy review. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.34 per cent in March and 4.83 per cent in April 2024. It was 3.15 per cent in July 2019.
The RBI is likely to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points this week after keeping it on hold for two years, complementing the Union Budget initiatives to push consumption-led demand, though the sliding rupee continues to be a concern. As the retail inflation has remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone (less than 6 per cent) for most of the year, the central bank can take rate action to boost growth hit by sluggish consumption, opined experts.
Uncertainty is emerging as the only certainty, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das as he emphasised on continued policy support at the December MPC meet during which members expressed concerns over spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, as per the minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Wednesday. After three days of deliberations, the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on December 8 unanimously voted for status quo on policy rates for the ninth consecutive time. At the meeting, the RBI Governor said risks stalking the global economy have amplified with rapid spread of the virus mutations, including the Omicron variant, leading to countries scrambling for restrictions.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for the sixth time in a row as it maintains a tight vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April last year after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday raised India's growth projection for 2023 calendar year to 6.7 per cent on account of robust economic momentum. "Strong services expansion and capital expenditures propelled India's 7.8 per cent real GDP growth in the second (April-June) quarter from a year ago. "We have accordingly raised our 2023 calendar year growth forecast for India from 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent," Moody's said in its Global Macro Outlook. - el nino
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected retail inflation at 4.2 percent for the next financial year beginning April while retaining the forecast for 2024-25 at 4.8 percent. The central bank attributed the expected easing of inflation to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favorable rabi crop prospects. However, the RBI also noted that continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
'Deposit and lending rates have started to fall considerably. It is likely to spur investment and consumption of durables.'
The US Fed rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign inflows into India, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said on Thursday. He said the US Federal Reserve has done what it assesses is good for the largest economy in the world, but the RBI will take a decision on interest rate cut keeping the Indian economy in mind. "It is a positive for the global economy, including the Indian economy. "It is a 50 basis points cut from a high level.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
'The statistical confidence bands of the fan charts of the forecasts will provide a better sense of the potential variability of outcomes.'
Says impact of crisis in China won't be as big here as in some other countries
Govt likely to get full control on policy rate.
The continuing global uncertainity has complicated the fight against inflation, opined Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on February 8. According to the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Wednesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also mentioned that there is considerable uncertainty due to a host of global factors such as rising non-oil commodity prices. The RBI on February 8 hiked the key short-term lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for the current financial year, lower than 5.4 per cent in the last fiscal. Assuming a normal monsoon this year, CPI (consumer price index-based) inflation for the current year is projected at 4.5 per cent, with Q1 at 4.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.8 per cent, Q3 at 4.6 per cent, and Q4 at 4.5 per cent.
A day after his appointment as the 26th governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), outgoing Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on Tuesday said one must understand the economic landscape and do what was best for the economy. "Let me first go, join, understand the turf ... Here it is a different role," Malhotra said, speaking to reporters in front of North Block.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Amid a debate on the basis of a monetary policy stance, one may be curious enough to know how non-food retail inflation has behaved over the years in India. Let the eager souls catch a glimpse of facts. In the past 10 years, non-food inflation came down below 4 per cent on two occasions - pre-Covid period of 2019-20 and now in the first four months of the current financial year (FY25).
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
India is gearing up to introduce a six-member monetary policy committee that would vote on interest rates.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the fifth time in a row as it maintains a tight vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes, aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent, as Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank's monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. In April, the Reserve Bank had estimated the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation at 5.2 per cent during the fiscal 2023-24. CPI inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in April 2023, from 6.4 per cent in February, on the back of favourable base effects, with softening observed across all the three major groups.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5% was contrary to the expectations of many economists. Firstly, most of the economists expected the MPC to cut the repo rate by 25 bps citing the weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity.
Sanjay Malhotra takes charge as the 26th RBI governor at a time when headline retail inflation has shot up to 6.2%.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation rate is likely to have cooled further in June, thus remaining below the 4 per cent target of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for a fifth consecutive month, giving the central bank wiggle room to focus on growth. Economists reckon that the decline is on account of easing prices in various categories of goods, especially food items, and a favourable base effect.
In the Sensex pack, Hero MotoCorp, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Auto, Maruti and M&M were the top gainers, spurting up to 2.66 per cent.
Deputy Governor Michael Patra warned about the spillover effects of food inflation.
Rajan was expected to join the search committee to appoint three external members of a new six-member RBI Monetary Policy Committee
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to settle lower on Wednesday due to late selling in index major Reliance Industries, ITC and HDFC Bank even as the RBI took the first step towards a rate cut in its monetary policy review. Erasing its early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 167.71 points or 0.21 per cent to close at 81,467.1. During the day, it surged 684.4 points or 0.83 per cent to hit an intra-day high of 82,319.21.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
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